Continued after Part--1
We have been discussing about the career in Planning & Developments for the MBA (Finance) students. The first article has already reflected about India’s growth prospect, with a special note on the neighboring China’s downtrend after 25 years of more than 9 per cent of higher growth rate. The discussion is being based on the Harvard University’s in-depth study on a research project by its CID department.
The study has predicted about the bullish trends about 4 East African Countries. They are Uganda, Madagascar, Tanzania and Kenya. These countries are predictably to rank among the top 10 among the countries which are likely to grow at least 6 percent per annum.
Scenarios of Asian countries
Among the Asian countries, Pakistan also has a fair chance of growing at 5.1 per cent per annum, as the study says. On the other side, Indonesia, among the South East Asian Countries, is also projected to grow with the pace of 5.2 percent per annum up to 2023.
So if the East African Countries and South East Asian countries predicted growth trends is the outlook, the South East Asian countries along with East African countries are projected to have a bullish trend.
The outlook for the USA and European countries
The outlook for the USA and European countries, in comparison to the above, shows a bit low in the perspectives of the prediction up to 2023. The prediction for these countries is 2.4 percent annually. Many of the European countries’ predicted growth rate is 2.3 per cent for Italy, 3.7 per cent for Spain has been confirmed to be the major players among the European Countries.
Turkey, among the OECD countries, is found to be the most optimistic for its predictable 5.3 per cent of growth rate.
East Asia and Sub-Saharan areas are the examples of economic growth
In all together, a significant convergence of global income has been predicted through this model. Besides this, some catch-up has also been noticed in some of the parts in South East Asia and Sub-Saharan areas.
Increasing more products and increasing complexity of products
Since the countries are bent upon accumulating productive knowledge, so they develop their respective capacity for making both products of increasing complexity and also more products. These factors, as per Prof. Hausmann of CID department, underpin the economic growth of any country.
Kenya, Philippines and India show the examples
According to Prof. Hausmann, African Countries like Kenya, and the Asian countries like Philippines and India have recently gained from their diversification of exports into their more complex products. If history is to be believed, the gains from such economic complexities have been successful in getting translated to higher incomes, making the concerned countries “the global fortune runners”, because of their growth prospects.
The newly released global trade data as the basis of CID’s projections
The projections of the CID bases on newly released 2013 global data and also the Atlas of Economic Complexity, which has the capacity of predicting economic growth, is an online tool and can measure the productive knowledge of a country.
What is the meaning of Productive knowledge?
Productive knowledge means the knowledge that helps in making products, by capturing more relevant information, pertaining to the drivers of the economic growth. It also provides precisely accurate explanation about the reasons behind the countries’ becoming rich or poor.
According to the Atlas, there is a significant accuracy which helps in predicting the upcoming economic growth. When comprehended through the issues like education, competitiveness and governance, the measures of Atlas’s Economic complexity is found to be exemplary forecast about the Economic Growth Rate. This is proved to be 10 times accurate, when compared with the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index.